Market is expect to be open today (27/08/2012)

USDINR- Will open down

EURINR- Will open Flat

GBPINR- Will open down

JPYINR- Will open down

Forex Exchange Morning Report (24/06/2012)

Risk assets soured overnight despite fresh hopes for another round of Fed easing and slightly stronger than expected US and Eurozone data. The S&P500 fell 0.7% with the earlier weak HSBC China PMI cited as a more important catalyst as well as comments from an EC spokesperson that no negotiations were taking place with Spain for a sovereign aid program. Comments from St. Louis Fed President Bullard (hawkish, non-voter) that yesterday's FOMC minutes, 'are a bit stale' was also reportedly behind today's weakness, even as Evans (Chicago Fed, dovish) called for more easing in earlier Asian trading.

AUD and NZD tracked US equities lower, AUD shedding 0.6% while NZD fell 0.4%. AUD is trading at 1.0445 into the close while NZD is at 0.8135. AUD/ NZD fell to 5 week lows of 1.2835. EUR/USD bucked the trend overnight, grinding higher from 1.2530 to 1.2565

Economic wrap

US new home sales rose 3.6% in July, reversing June's 3.5% fall. With revisions the 3.6% gain saw an annualised sales pace of 372k, just a whisker away from our 371k forecast. A clear sales uptrend is now in place since August last year when sales were running a 292k pace. A separate report from the FHFA showed house prices up 0.7% in June, the fifth straight gain.

US initial jobless claims rose 4k to 372k, just above our high end 370k forecast. At this level, claims are in the middle of the recent 352k-392k range that has prevailed since April.

Euro zone composite PMI advance edges up from 46.5 to 46.6 in August. The German services PMI weaker (lowest since mid 2009) but the factory was higher; French services was higher but factory about flat. That saw the Euro zone factory PMI rise from 44.0 to 45.3 in Aug while the services PMI slowed from 47.9 to 47.5. The composite has been below 50 for 11 of the past 12 months, consistent with the mild recession in Europe since then.

Euro zone consumer confidence drops from –21.5 to –24.6 in Aug advance report, much weaker than any forecast and back at post-Lehman Bros collapse levels in late 2008.

German GDP unrevised at 0.3% in Q2; exports were the driver, up 2.5%.

UK CBI retail survey for Aug showed reported sales dropping from 11 to –3, suggesting Olympics buzz did not extend to the high street. Separately, the BBA reported 28.4k new mortgages in July, reversing much but not all of the dip from 30.0k in May. June was weighed down by the Jubilee bank holidays

Market is expected to be open today (24/08/2012)

USDINR- will open down
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GBPINR-will open flat or down
JPYINR will open down

Forex Exchange Morning Report (17/08/2012)

Sentiment was buoyed by hopes for Spain. An influential advisory report claiming Spain was willing to accept fiscal reforms in exchange for heavy ECB intervention in its bond markets was cited as a major catalyst for the rally in equities and currencies last night. German Chancellor Merkel added that the ECB's vow to do whatever was necessary to defend the Eurozone was consistent with the views of European leaders. European equities closed 1.1% higher and the S&P500 is currently up 0.8%. The CRB commodities index is up 0.2%, with oil +0.6%, copper +1.0%, and gold 0.8%. US 10yr treasury yields were volatile, falling from 1.86% to 1.78% in London and then fully rebounding after the NY open. US data was mildly disappointing but had little market impact. The Spanish 10yr yield fell 12 bp to 6.52% - a one month low.

The US dollar index (DXY) fell by 0.7% overnight. EUR rose throughout the evening from 1.2256 to 1.2373. USD/JPY maintained Asian session gains in a 79.10-79.40 range, recent strength perhaps due to higher US interest rates. AUD turned upwards near the Sydney close at 1.0475 and continued to 1.0526, most of the gain coming after the advisory report on Spain. NZD similarly rose from 0.8055 to 0.8119. AUD/NZD fell from 1.3005 to 1.2960, the past few days' price action suggestive of a major reversal lower towards 1.2600.

Economic wrap

US Philadelphia Fed factory survey up 5.8pts to –7.1 in Aug, its fourth straight month of contraction. Orders, shipments and jobs all remained firmly in contractionary territory. So, NY, Philly, Richmond and Dallas Fed factory surveys are all slumping mid year as they did last year - the question now is do they recover sharply like in late 2011 or is the upside from here more subdued this time around?

US housing starts down 1.1% in July. A 12.4% jump in multiples offset a 6.5% fall in single family starts, the first decline in that sector in five months, and wiping out half of the 12% rise in single starts between March-June. Housing permits rose 6.8% with single family permits up 4.5%, their fourth straight gain. With permits (singles) running a 513k annualised pace in July vs starts on 502k, starts might recover somewhat later in Q3.

US initial jobless claims rose 2k to 366k in the week ended 11/8, suggesting that claims are stabilising back around their Feb-Mar lows just above 360k per week, after annual auto plant shutdown distortions in the July data. On this measure, the job market has improved somewhat relative to April-June when claims reached 390k+ per week.

Euroland core CPI edges up to 1.7% yr in July, its highest since 2009, but headline rate unrevised at 2.4% yr.

UK retail sales rose 0.3% in July, and June's 0.1% gain was revised up to 0.8%. July's annual sales volume growth rate of 2.8% yr is the third highest since 2008, surpassed only by temporary spikes in growth due to VAT changes or unusual weather disruption. The detail showed clothing and household goods sales fall, while other storetypes posted gains, but ex fuel there was no growth in the month. Changed public holiday arrangements in June, unseasonal weather swings and the Olympics are all factors that make this report difficult to interpret. It is clear, however, that heavy price discounting in clothing last month and fuel this month was behind the sharp monthly swings in those sectors. The retail deflator rose just 0.2% yr, its lowest since 2009, also a function of discounting

Forex Exchange Morning Report (16/08/2012)

Risk sentiment appeared to improve slightly last night, although the movement in proxies such as US equities has been miniscule for eight days in a row – perhaps reflecting dwindling conviction that QE3 will be signalled at Jackson Hole. That conviction was bolstered slightly last night with the release of weaker inflation and NY manufacturing reports, the S&P500 rallying in response to be up 0.2% currently. Commodities are mixed, the CRB index +0.5%, oil +1.9%, copper -0.3%, and gold +0.4%. US 10yr treasury yields rose from 1.72% to 1.81% - a three-month high.

The US dollar index (DXY) rose by around 0.4% in London. EUR fell from 1.2386 to 1.2264 in the day’s underperformance. Possibly hurting it was a report Greece is seeking a two year extension to its deficit deadline which implies an additional funding need of EUR20bn. USD/JPY is little changed at 78.90 but has a sharp fall from 79.05 to 78.59 after the first of the US data releases. AUD firmed from 1.0455 to 1.0515, most of the gain coming after the weak US data releases (raising the chances of QE3). NZD rose from 0.8039 to 0.8075. AUD/NZD was rangebound between 1.3000 and 1.3025.

Economic wrap

US CPI flat in July, its fourth month running without a rise, with food up just 0.1% and energy 0.3% following much steeper falls through Q2. With high weighted OER (rent), which makes up almost a quarter of the CPI, up 0.2%, the remainder of the core components were very soft including apparel below trend on 0.2%, auto prices lower and airfares down sharply again. Headline inflation fell to 1.4% yr, its lowest since late 2010 and the core annual pace slipped to 2.1% yr (lowest this year so far) so current inflation is certainly no impediment to further policy stimulus if/when the FOMC takes the plunge again.

US NY Fed factory index down 13 pts to –6 in Aug, its weakest reading since 2011’s mid-year slump in this index (and lower than the only sub zero forecast in the 56-strong survey, Westpac’s –2). NY Fed has now caught up with recent weakness in Philly, Richmond and Dallas Fed factory indices, so only Kansas City Fed remains above 0 at 5 in July. The NY detail showed orders falling faster (down 3 to –5.5), shipments growth (down 6 to 4) and jobs growth (down 2 to 16.5) both slowing. None of these outcomes justified the headline plunge so NY bosses may be feeling a little less buzzy about their own company’s performance but these respondents are now much more worried about general business conditions.

US industrial production rose 0.6% in July, exactly in line with our forecast, as a 3.3% surge in autos due to changed summer plant shutdown arrangements saw factories churn out a 0.5% increase (0.2% ex autos); a 1.3% rise in utilities boosted the IP bottom line.

US NAHB housing market index rose 2 pts to 37 in Aug, a new post 2007 high.

US total net TIC flows slowed from $121bn to $17bn in June; net long term flows slowed from $55.9bn to $9.3bn, perhaps somewhat less safe haven flow into dollar assets from European concerns than expected.

Canadian existing home sales flat in Jul after a 1.3% June decline. New series with no back data available to us.

UK employment grew 201k in Q2, up from 128k in Q1 and 83k in Q4 last year. Accelerating jobs growth has thus coincided with the deepening recession, and too early it seems for any temporary Olympics boost. When the economy last grew in Q3 2011, jobs shrank 161k. That implies some unfavourable productivity outcomes of late. The jobless rate eased further to 8.0% in Q2 and in July, benefit claimant count joblessness fell 6k after a similar sized rise in the previous two months. Meanwhile, the Aug BoE MPC minutes showed a unanimous steady rates/unchanged asset purchase target decision.

Forex Exchange Morning Report (14/08/2012)

Cracks appear. The euphoria following the ECB's stimulus proposals announced on 2 August has waned and is slowly being replaced by concerns regarding the timing of and detail behind the signalled stimulus. Helping confirm those concerns last night was news that a fresh lawsuit against the ESM bailout fund was filed in the German constitutional court, potentially delaying the use of the fund and in turn, ECB action. Also hurting sentiment was an increase in London Clearing House margins on Spanish and Italian bonds, plus a Handelsblatt report that Germany will veto EFSF payments to Greece if the country doesn't comply with its fiscal obligations. The S&P500 fell 0.7% on the above but recovered in NY to be -0.2% currently. Commodities were weaker, the CRB index down -0.9% and copper -1.2% but Brent oil up 0.6%. US 10yr treasury yields were confined to a sideways 1.62%-1.67% range.

The US dollar index (DXY) is little changed. EUR initially rose from 1.2275 to 1.2373 but sagged in NY to 1.2325. USD/JPY continued to consolidate between 78.16 and 78.37. AUD followed the equities slump from 1.0574 to 1.0497 and settled in NY to 1.0520. NZD fell from 0.8128 to 0.8077 before settling to 0.8090. AUD/NZD was directionless between 1.2995 and 1.3015.

Economic wrap

Greek GDP contracts at -6.2% yr annual pace in Q2. While still painting a devastatingly weak picture, the pace of meltdown of the Greek economy was not quite as steep as the few economists who try to forecast the data expected; Q2 saw the economy shrink at the second slowest annual pace in nearly two years. But with the Statistics office short staffed and no longer publishing seasonally adjusted data, the precise numbers are not the issue, it's that the economy has not posted material economic growth since 2007. Austerity fiscal measures and the uncertainties about euro membership, the ongoing bailout, the banks and politics show no real sign of diminished crushing pressure on the economy and the Greek people.

Forex Exchange Morning Report (09/08/2012)

Markets are little changed. Some soggy production data from Germany and downgraded BOE growth forecasts weighed on markets during the London morning but stronger US data (productivity, labour costs) helped the recovery. Also helping may have been a MNI story alleging the ECB is aiming to intervene in the bond markets after the German court ruling on the ESM (12 Sep) and is lobbying for an ESM banking license. European equities closed down 0.3% and the S&P500 is currently unchanged. Commodities were similarly contained, the CRB index up 0.2%, oil unchanged, copper -0.8% and gold +0.1%. US 10yr treasury yields are 2bp higher at 1.65%. The 10yr auction fared poorly, the awarded yield 2.5bp above market yield and the 2.5 bid-cover ratio the lowest since August 2009.

The US dollar index (DXY) ranged sideways overnight. EUR fell from 1.2392 to 1.2327 during the London morning but recovered to 1.2376 in NY. USD/JPY bounced from 78.24 to 78.52. AUD ground higher from 1.0535 to 1.0582 before slipping to 1.0560. NZD similarly firmed from 0.8121 to 0.8164. AUD/NZD slipped from yesterday's 1.2985 minor peak to 1.2950

Economic wrap

US productivity growth was 1.6% in Q2 compared to -0.5% in Q1. Although growth slowed, hours worked slowed even faster implying greater productivity and also pulling unit labour costs down from 5.6% to 1.7% annualised growth.

Fedspeak: adequate stimulus in place, according to Dallas Fed's Fisher, contrasting to his Colleague Rosengren yesterday, who wanted more.

German industrial production fell 0.9% in June, reversing part of May's 1.7% bounce, to be down 0.3% yr, the same annual pace of contraction as in May. Meanwhile, German exports fell 1.5% in June, reversing some of their 4.2% May bounce.

Bank of England inflation report. Inflation is 'a little more likely to be below' the 2% target in late 2013 and 2014 but risks are balanced by the end of the forecast period in 2015, although that view is based on market pricing of a further rate cut and the asset purchase program being held at £375bn, so it implies some further easing could yet be justified. The Governor's notes on the economy make gloomy reading. 'The economy will continue to face headwinds over the forecast period, from the fiscal consolidation and tight credit conditions at home, as well as from the difficulties in the euro area and a broader slowing in the world economy. The recession in the euro area is damaging demand for our exports; a black cloud of uncertainty is hanging over investment; and the weakening euro is a further obstacle to the adjustment we need to make in our net trade position. Our efforts to bring about a rebalancing of the UK economy will require patience.'

Forex Exchange Morning Report (08/08/2012)

Sentiment remained positive with no significant news to drive markets, although AUD and NZD underperformed. Fed Chairman Bernanke spoke about education and largely avoided monetary policy, while Fed dove Rosengren and hawk Fisher reaffirmed their respectively extreme positions. Eurogroup president Juncker said a Greek exit is undesirable but manageable, while an EU source reportedly said Spain won't request further aid if there are more fiscal strings attached. ECB council member Hanson affirmed its conditional plan to intervene in bond markets. Italy's posted a fourth consecutive GDP contraction. European equities closed 1.7% higher and the S&P500 is currently up 0.6%. The CRB commodities index is up 0.7%, Brent crude oil up 2.1% and copper up 1.3%. US 10yr treasury yields are 6bp higher at 1.63%. A 3yr auction was weak, awarded at 0.5bp above market yield.

The US dollar index (DXY) was unchanged overnight. EUR rose from 1.2376 to 1.2442 during the London morning but reversed to 1.2402 during the afternoon. USD/JPY rose from 78.24 to 78.74. AUD made a fresh five-month high of 1.0604 early London but then slumped to 1.0550. NZD also probed the recent high but failed at 0.8221 and slumped to 0.8149 in the underperformance of the day. AUD/NZD accordingly rose from 1.2880 to 1.2945, a firmly on-hold RBA perhaps causing a paring of speculative short positions

Economic wrap

Fedspeak. Boston Fed President Rosengren said the central bank should pursue an “open-ended” quantitative easing program of “substantial magnitude”, with policy guidance based on desired economic outcomes and the focus of purchases shifted to mortgage backed securities.

Canadian Ivey PMI jumps from 49.0 to 62.8 in Jul, continuing the recent pattern of up and down swings of 10 points or more, making it difficult to interpret the underlying economic and business conditions respondents are experiencing. In June, building permits fell 2.5% as a 4.2% rise in the residential component was more than offset by a 12% drop in non-residential permits.

German factory orders fell 1.7% in June, and are now running –7.8% yr, the annual pace of decline seen just prior to the collapse in global trade in late 2008. Orders from elsewhere in Europe were down almost 20% yr, although other foreign and domestic orders were also in decline, by 2% yr and 5% yr respectively. Germany is no longer the engine room of Europe, which we expect GDP data next week to confirm.

Italian GDP contracted 0.7% in Q2, down for the fourth quarter running, for a –2.5% yr annual pace of decline.

UK industrial production fell 2.5% in June, not as weak as expected given that the weather was very poor and the Queen's Jubilee meant that there were two extra public holidays in the month, and one fewer in May. Indeed the statistician noted that 0.07ppts will be added to the second estimate of Q2 GDP. The first estimate was initially reported at -0.7%. A separate report from the BRC showed 0.1% yr growth in July retail sales, supported by an Olympics boost to food and drink sales late in the month, although big ticket item sales were “struggling”.

Market is expected to open as on 06/08/2012

USDINR- Will Open Down

EURINR- Will Open Up

GBPINR- Will Open Flat or UP

JPYINR- Will Open Down

Forex Exchange Morning Report (06/08/2012)

Risk sentiment rebounded after Thursday's ECB disappointment. US jobs growth beat expectations, and there may have been some reassessment of the chances of near-term ECB bond intervention. Spanish 10yr bond yields initially rose from 7.17% to 7.44% but reversed sharply down to 6.85% on rumours Spain would officially request a bailout (in turn paving the way for greater ECB involvement). The Spanish PM later confirmed a rescue was under consideration. Also supporting ECB expectations were signals from Germany's coalition partners they would not object to the ECB's bond purchase plans. European equities closed 4.8% higher and the S&P500 closed up 1.9% at a three-month high. The CRB commodities index closed up 2.1%. US 10yr treasury yields rose from 1.47% to 1.59%, the initial 5bp selloff driven by the Spain/ECB rumours and the remainder by the US payrolls surprise.

The US dollar index (DXY) fell by around 1.2%. EUR rose from 1.2180 to 1.2293 on the Spain/ECB rumours, and then from 1.2220 to 1.2392 on the US payrolls result. It opened at 1.2280 this morning. USD/JPY rose from 78.20 to 78.77. AUD followed EUR's lead, rising from 1.0475 to 1.0571. NZD rose from 0.8130 to 0.8199. AUD/NZD consolidated between 1.2880 and 1.2930

Economic wrap

US non-farm payrolls rise 163k in Jul. That is the fastest gain since February and followed gains averaging just 73k per months in Q2. That said, 3 month average payrolls growth of 105k in May-Jul was still down from 157k in Feb-Apr, so the overall impression is still one of a slower job market relative to earlier this year. The separate household survey reinforces that message: in July its jobs count was down 195k after rising 550k in May-June and that pushed the jobless rate back up to 8.3% from 8.2% in June and the April low of 8.1%. In the four months since the start of Q2, household survey employment growth averaged 47k per month, compared to 355k per month in the previous four months (or 190k average in Dec, Jan and Feb excluding Jan's 847k gain which was partly due to a break in the survey related to a new population count). Hours worked and earnings growth in July were both soft at 0.1%. By industry, construction jobs continued to trend lower (but were down just 1k in July), while manufacturing jobs jumped 25k (up to 13k of that is related to the shorter summer auto factory shutdown this year and should drop out in Aug) and every other industry sector posted gains, except for ongoing public sector job losses (down 9k in July).

US ISM non-manufacturing rises from 52.0 to 52.6 in Jul. That is still the second weakest reading for the year so far and indeed June-July together are the lowest back to back readings since Q1 2010. The July detail showed business activity rising 5.5 pts to 57.2 (highest since March); orders rose 1 pt to 54.3; but jobs fell 3 pts to 49.3, their first contraction (ie sub 50 reading) for the year.

Euroland retail sales rose 0.1% in June, and with May up 0.8% that is the first back to back gain in retail since June-July last year. The annual pace of sales volumes growth continued to contract, at –1.2% yr. Separately, an upward revision to the July services PMI from 47.6 to 47.9 meant the Euroland composite PMI was revised from 46.4 to 46.5, still broadly in line with the average 46.4 reading in Q2 and down from 49.6 in Q1.

UK services PMI slips from 51.3 to 51.0 in July, its lowest reading since the previous recession in 2009 apart from the Dec 2010 drop to 49.7 due to snow disruption that promptly reversed the next month. The gradual decline in the services PMI in recent months, seemingly unaffected by weather and public holiday distortions, is further evidence that while Q2 GDP overstated the underlying weakness in the economy, the UK economy is at best stalled and more likely still in mild recession.

Market opening expected today (03/08/2012)

USDINR- will open gap up

EURINR- will open flat

GBPINR- will open flat

JPYINR- will open up

Forex Exchange Morning Report (03/08/2012)

Markets were disappointed by the ECB. European equities closed 3.0% lower, while the S&P500 is currently down 1.1%. While there were notable steps towards proper quantitative easing (future bond purchases may be unsterilised and see the ECB relinquish its seniority status), hopes for immediate action were dashed. Moreover, the possibility of future bond purchases was conditional on Eurozone countries doing more to resolve the crisis. Overall, there was probably enough to reduce the risk of a Eurogeddon but not enough to satisfy buyers of risky assets. The CRB commodities index is down 1.6%, Brent oil -0.2% (WTI oil -2.1%), copper -2.3%, and gold -0.7%. US 10yr treasury yields reversed sharply on the ECB comments from 1.57% to 1.44%. Peripheral EZ bonds were damaged, Spain's 10yr yield up 43bp to 7.17%, Italy's up 40bp.

The US dollar index (DXY) is higher. EUR initially spiked from 1.2255 to 1.2405 on the ECB statement but Draghi's comments afterwards dampened the market mood and it fell to 1.2134. USD/JPY fell well before the ECB from 78.50 to 78.20 and consolidated around there. AUD firmed in the run-up to the ECB, spiking from 1.0520 to 1.0580 immediately and then slumping to 1.0489 during the press conference. NZD similarly spiked to 0.8172 and then slumped to 0.8076. AUD/NZD was heavy throughout, falling from 1.2960 to 1.2915

Economic wrap

US factory goods orders down 0.5% in June. Non-durables were down 2.0%, offsetting a 1.3% rise in durables (revised down from 1.6%).

US initial jobless claims rose 8k to 365k, but the recent distortion due to seasonal adjustment difficulties related to summer auto plant shutdowns has not yet passed according to the Labor Dept; the spokesman added that next week's figures should private a clearer guide to the jobs market. In related news, corporate layoff announcements were down 44.5% yr, but these figures can also be volatile in the summer months. In other US news, the little-watched NY ISM rose from 49.7 to 55.2 in July.

The ECB left rates unchanged and warned that 'a further intensification of financial market tensions has the potential to affect the balance of risks for both growth and inflation on the downside'. The press statement sounded promising: the Governing Council 'may undertake outright open market operations of a size adequate to reach its objective.' and that it 'may consider undertaking further non-standard monetary policy measures according to what is required to repair monetary policy transmission.'

But in the Q&A, it became apparent that these outright open market ops would only involve short-term debt of sovereigns with excessive risk premia who had applied to the EFSF/ESM rescue fund and accepted strict conditions. Draghi was being necessarily vague about some of the detail such as sterilisation and its creditor seniority status because legal and other issues have yet to be decided. However he reiterated that the measures will be adequate to ensure the effective transmission of monetary policy. Markets were disappointed with the lack of immediate action and lack of detail (and only the barest hint of a big bazooka). That said, Draghi has delivered in the past and he implied he would again in a matter of weeks.

Forex Exchange Morning Report- (02/08/2012)

Markets disappointed by the Fed. The US central bank did not signal any further accommodation, and disappointed those expecting at least an extension of the lowrate period to 2015. It did, however, leave the door open to further measures, saying it 'will closely monitor incoming information on economic and financial developments and will provide additional accommodation as needed'. There was an immediate negative reaction in most risky markets but they settled after about 20 minutes. Indeed, the S&P500 rebounded to be unchanged on the day. The CRB commodities index is also unchanged, oil +0.7%, copper -1.77% and gold -0.8%. US 10yr treasury yields, which had drifted down to 1.49% ahead of the FOMC, rose to 1.54% afterwards. Earlier US data releases (manufacturing activity disappointed but private sector payrolls surprised) had little market impact.

Currencies were more responsive to the FOMC, the US dollar index (DXY) rising by around 0.6%. EUR fell from 1.2300 to 1.2222 in response. USD/JPY jumped from 78.06 to 78.50. AUD peaked during the London morning at 1.0543, and fell from 1.0527 to 1.0448 after the FOMC. NZD similarly peaked earlier at 0.8144 and fell to 0.8079. Milk prices rose at the fortnightly international auction. AUD/NZD fell from midday London's 1.2965 to 1.2930, AUD the higher beta on the day.

Economic wrap

US FOMC statement more forceful re further policy action, saying it 'will provide additional accommodation as needed' this replaced 'is prepared to take further action as appropriate' in the June statement. The economic assessment was downgraded from 'the economy has been expanding moderately this year' in June to 'economic activity decelerated somewhat over the first half of this year' in today's statement. The exceptionally low rates to end 2014 conditional commitment remained in place.

US ISM factory index edges up a tick to 49.8 in Jul. For the second month running the composite headline points to a stalled industrial sector, after readings in the 52.5- 55.0 range in the first five months of the year. The detail showed a slight acceleration in production to 51.3, ongoing contraction in orders (48.0) and slower growth in jobs (52.0).

US ADP private payrolls rise 163k in July. That compares to a 138k monthly average through Q2 and 205k in Q1 this year. So on this measure the slowdown in jobs growth recorded in April-May has been partially reversed since then. US construction spending rose 0.4% in June, with residential construction posting its third consecutive solid gain, but the non-residential component stalling.

Euroland PMI manufacturing revised down a tick to 44.0 in final July reading.

UK PMI factory drops from 48.4 to 45.4 in Jul, its third sub-50 reading in a row, and the lowest reading in over three years. Other July surveys showed a 1.0% yr rise in the BRC shop price index, its weakest since late 2009 and an indication that the CPI will continue to decelerate; and a 0.7% fall in house prices, pulling the annual pace of decline for the Nationwide index to –2.6% yr, also its lowest since 2009