Forex Exchange Morning Report (13/06/2012)

USDINR- Will open down

EURINR- Will open down

GBPINR- Will open flat or down

JPYINR- Will open flat or down

Market wrap

Markets flipped back to a less risk averse tone last night. The news flow was of only moderate importance but mostly positive. Following yesterday's comments from Fed dove Evans allowing for global policy coordination, voting centrist Lockhart said stimulus options should remain on the table, keeping alive market expectations of the Fed. The ECB, in its Financial Stability Review, endorsed the European Commission's proposal to guarantee European bank deposits. Rumours circulated that the ECB has intervened in the peripheral bond markets. Fitch rating agency provided some off set to the above, downgrading 18 Spanish banks in the wake of its recent sovereign move, and commenting the country will probably miss its budget deficit targets.

The S&P500 is currently up 0.7%, and the CRB commodities index is up 0.1% (oil +0.9%, copper unchanged, gold +0.8%). US 10yr treasury yields ground higher from 1.59% to 11.66%. The 3yr auction went well (3.5 bid-cover vs 3.4 average). The slightly improved sentiment did not extend to Eurozone peripherals, though: Spain's 10yr rose 31bp to an all-time high of 6.83%, and Italy rose 27bp to 6.30% - a five-month high.

The US dollar index (DXY) was range-bound. EUR was similarly consolidative inside 1.2440-1.2530, currently at 1.2505. USD/JPY chopped around inside 79.37 and 79.70. AUD ground high in hesitant fashion, from 0.9880 to 0.9940. NZD similarly ground from 0.7705 to 0.7772. AUD/NZD broke below the key 1.2815 to 1.2775, targeting 1.2600 during the weeks ahead

Economic wrap

US NFIB small business optimism down slightly from 94.5 to 94.4 in May. However some of the detail was positive, including a further gain from 5 to 6 in the intention to hire index, up from 0 in April.

US import prices fell 1.0% in May, due mainly to a 4.2% fall in petroleum prices. Food prices also fell but ex food/fuel prices were flat. Exports prices fell 0.4% in May.

US IBD-TIPP economic optimism down from 48.5 to 46.7 in June, driven my lower readings for the economic outlook, federal policies and to a lesser extent the personal financial outlook.

Fedspeak. Known dove Charles Evans of the Chicago Fed said he would support a range of measures to generate faster jobs growth.

UK industrial production flat in April, with factory output down 0.7% but utilities surging 13.6% after March's mild weather turned miserable in April. In other news, the RICS house price balance improved from –19% to –16% in May, about where it was at the start of the year, and less pessimistic than in early 2011.

Spanish bank downgrades. The credit ratings of 18 Spanish banks were cut by Fitch today. Spanish govt 10 yr bond yields hit new highs today at over 6.75%, with Italy on 6.25% and Germany 1.40%. Fitch said other eurozone country ratings, including the AAA nations', were at risk

Forex Exchange Morning Report (12/06/2012)

USDINR- WILL OPEN UP OR FLAT

EURINR- WILL OPEN DOWN

GBPINR- NOT CLEAR ON CHARTS

JPYINR- NOT CLEAR ON CHARTS 

Forex Exchange Morning Report

Market wrap

The immediate market euphoria after Spain's weekend bailout announcement gave way last night to scepticism. Details of the rescue process, which will not be announced until the EC has fully assessed Spain's banking sector, could impact the state of government finances as well as the security ranking of existing bondholders. The related news fl ow was also negative: Fitch downgraded two of Spain's largest banks, the deputy governor of the central bank resigned, and Cyprus indicated it may need a bailout before month-end. Markets also remained nervous a Eurozone-unfriendly outcome from Sunday's Greek election is possible. The S&P500 weakened throughout London and NY and is currently down 0.8%. The CRB commodities index is down 0.8% (oil -2.6%, copper +1.0%, gold +0.5%). US 10yr treasury yields reversed lower from 1.72% to 1.58%. Spain's 10yr surged 29bp to 6.51%, and Italy's 10yr surged 26bp to 6.03% - a fresh five-month high – as contagion took hold.

The US dollar index (DXY) bounced around 1.0%. EUR fell from 1.2650 to 1.2483. USD/JPY consolidated in a narrowing 79.35-79.70 range. AUD weakened throughout the London and NY sessions, falling from 0.9990 to 0.9880. NZD weakened from 0.7780 to 0.7700. AUD/NZD probed lower from 1.2870 to 1.2820

Economic wrap

French industrial production up 1.5% in Apr, reversing March's 1.0% decline, although the gain was driven by a weather-related 20% surge in utility output reversing a 19% fall in March. Factory output fell 0.7% in April. Recall that German and Spanish IP data were very soft in April.

Spanish bank bailout enthusiasm wanes. Early gains on stock markets all but disappeared throughout the London session. Immediate implications of the Spain bank bailout are likely reworking of the Irish bailout given it was largely bank related too and then Portugal would expect a new deal with Greece and Ireland getting them.

Call Sheet From 31st May to 8th June- Return 130 Paisa

Currency Calls Sheet-(June 2012)

Date	Tips	Target/SL	Profit/Loss in paisa
31-05-2012	Sell USDINR at 56.47 to 50, Target 56.38 and 32, Sl 56.55	Both Targets Achieved	16
01-06-2012	Sell USDINR at 56.08 to 56.10, Target 55.95 and 55.90, SL 56.24	SL Hit	-16
01-06-2012	BUY USDINR at 56.25 to 32, Target 56.50 and 60, Sl 56	SL Hit	-27
04-06-2012	Positional  call :Sell USDINR at 55.70, target 55.45 and 55.0	Booked profit at 55.27(07/06/2012)	43
04-06-2012	Sell USDINR at 55.72-76, Sl 56, Target 55.62, 50 and 45	Two target achieved(day low 55.47)	22
05-06-2012	Buy USDINR at 55.65 to 69, Target 55.79 and 84, Sl 55.50	Exit at 55.62	-5
05-06-2012	Buy USDINR again at 55.70 to 73, target 55.85 and 90, Sl 55.55	Both Targets Achieved	18
05-06-2012	Sell EURINR at 69.58 to 65, Target 69.45 and 40, Sl 69.77	Partial profit booked at 69.49, Both targets achieved	11
06-06-2012	Sell USDINR at 55.73 to 76, Target 55.55 and 55.50, SL 55.87	Target achieved at 55.55	17
07-06-2012	Buy USDINR at 55.35 to 38, target 55.48 and 55.52, Sl at 55.23	SL Hit	-12
07-06-2012	Sell USDINR at 55.20 to 25, Target 55.10 and 55, SL 55.39	First Target achieved at 55.10	11
08-06-2012	Buy USDINR at 55.45 to 50, Target 55.60 and 65, Sl 55.30	Both Targets Achieved	14
08-06-2012	Sell GBPINR at 85.85 and 90, Target 65 and 60, Sl 86.06	Partial Profit Book at 85.76	12
08-06-2012	Sell EURINR at 69.41 to 45, Target 69.25 and 15, Sl 69.65	Partial Profit booked at 69.28	14
08-06-2012	Sell GBPINR again at 85.89, Target 85. 75 and 65, Sl 86.06	Partial Profit booked at 85.76	12
		Total Profit(In Paisa)	130

If you are still not registered for the currency calls then call me on earnest basis and registered yourself.

All suggestions and feed backs are most welcome.

Forex Exchange Morning Report

USDINR- Not Clear (Positive)

EURINR- Will Open Up

GBPINR- Will Open Flat

JPYINR-Will Open Negative 

Market wrap

Sentiment continued to improve on expectationsglobal policymakers are ready to act if needed. A plan to rescue Spain's banking sector without attached austerity conditions (as was the case for Greece, Portugal and Ireland) is being hatched, with the support of Germany, according to a Reuters report quoting unnamed German officials. The ECB left its policy rate unchanged but Draghi later said a few members called for cuts and that it stands ready to act. Fed centrist Lockhart said the level of concern about the economy has increased since the last FOMC meeting and extending Operation Twist is one option available. The above easily outweighed a weak German industrial production report. The US Beige Book of economic conditions again reported moderate growth. The S&P500 is currently up 1.8%, following a 2.4% gain in European stocks. The CRB commodities index is up 1.3% (oil +1.0%, copper 2.5%, gold 0.2%). US 10yr treasury yields extended this week's rebound from 1.56% to 1.67%. The Greek 10yr fell over 200bp.

The US dollar index (DXY) extended the week's decline. EUR initially fell from 1.2500 to 1.2440 after the ECB disappointed those expecting a rate cut, but soon after rebounded to 1.2574 on global policy expectations. USD/JPY rose from 78.80 to 79.28. AUD an NZD outperformed, AUD helped by its GDP surprise and extending to 0.9929 in NY. NZD extended to 0.7701. AUD/NZD initially firmed to 1.2945 before slipping to 1.2880 in NY.

Economic wrap

US Q1 productivity growth revised down from –0.5% to –0.9%, mostly refl ecting the downward revision to output in the second estimate of GDP published late in May. Unit labour costs growth was also revised down from 2.0% to 1.3% , as lower productivity was more than off set by a lower compensation estimate for the quarter.

US Fed beige book showed most surveyed firms reporting modest expansion and steady hiring over May - a slightly more positive picture than painted by the latest dismal payrolls report.

ECB on hold despite a few Council members arguing for a rate cut. Its unlimited short term cash off ering to banks was extended until early next year. The ECB is edging towards lower rates, although the June staff forecast for GDP growth this year was unrevised, albeit with increased downside risks. Draghi said the ECB stood ready ready to act if needed, but insisted that right now a rate cut or further LTRO from the ECB would not substitute for policy action by governments. Westpac's view remains that the growth outlook is weaker than the ECB's persistently unrealistic forecast, and that the case for more easing will quickly build heading into the next quarter. On that point, German industrial production fell 2% in April to be down 0.7% yr, its weakest since early 2010; and Spanish IP slowed at an annual pace of 8.3% yr, its weakest since late 2009.

UK construction PMI slows from 55.8 to 54.4 in April, still higher than at any time in the last nine months of 2011. Also the BRC shop price index rose from 1.3% yr to 1.5% yr in May (sometimes a guide to the direction of movement in the monthly CPI annual pace).